ATLAS'S BURDENS (updated)

by L. Berney

If Atlas, who in Greek mythology carries the weight of the world on his shoulders,

was asked, "What are the world's weightiest problems today?" his answer would
probably include:


NEEDS OF THE POPULATION EXPLOSION The world population is set to
increase by some 50% or another 3,000 Million people in the next 50
years. All these extra people will need food, water, housing, clothing,
health care, education and the other necessities of life, and, of course,
jobs.

WATER SHORTAGE Already acute in some parts of the world -- the
increase in population will greatly increase this problem. Water shortage
can lead to conflict and even war.

POWER SUPPLY Raising the living standards of the developing world and
at the same time the increase in the world's population will consume a
vastly increased amount of power. An extrapolation of the year on year
increase in the world's power consumption shows that by 2050 the
consumption will have doubled; by the end of the century the power
required will be at least five times the present level.

THE END OF OIL AND GAS The world's need for energy is increasing
while the reserves of oil and gas are rapidly running out. As evidence, the
prices of oil and gas have doubled in recent years. Supplies must eventually
be exhausted, what then?

REDUCING CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS. CO2 (almost certainly) causes
global warming and therefore climate change. As oil and gas become
scarcer and more expensive, the world will probably burn more coal, of
which there are is a vast reserve. Coal produces much more CO2 than oil
or gas and therefore increases global warming and all the dire
consequences which must follow.

RISING SEA LEVEL Due to global warming and melting ice, the sea level is
predicted to rise by up to one meter by the end of the century. If so, this
will inundate some of the most densely populated cities and areas in the
world. Hundreds of millions of people now in those cities and areas will
gradually re-locate in other, higher, areas.

CONSEQUENCES OF A CHANGE IN CLIMATE Climate change will cause
major changes in the amount and location of rainfall. Some parts of the
world will become virtually uninhabitable. The existing population in those
regions (many hundreds of millions) will over time have to re-locate in other
areas, and add to those of the hundreds of millions having to migrate due
to the rising sea level.

POVERTY Some 40%, or 2,700 Million, of the world's population are
currently having to live on less than US$2 (œ1) a day. Some 800 Million go
to bed hungry every night. Over 2,000 Million people have no access to
electricity. Poverty shortens life, causes disease, increases infant mortality,
leads to mass economic migration, more "illegal immigrants".

AIDS This pandemic, first recognized in 1981, had by 2006 caused the
death of some 25 million people. It is estimated that today some 39 million
people are infected, of these. nearly 600,000 are children. Although there
are treatments (for those that can afford them) which prolong life, there is
no known cure.

RELIGIOUS AMBITION -- WORLD DOMINATION Some religions dictate that it is
their holy duty to convert all non-believers and those individuals who will not convert must be dominated or killed. Such conflict has been waged for over 1,000 years and continues to this day.

---

What are the world's governments and commercial and industrial corporations
doing to tackle these global problems? From what I can discover, with one
exception, not much!

There has been a marked recent interest in the field of REDUCING CARBON
DIOXIDE EMISSIONS. The emphasis seems to be on RESTRICTING the use of
electricity and the use of vehicles by means of taxation and legislation (Kyoto, EU
and G8 resolutions). There is little or no emphasis on REPLACEMENT of the CO2
emitting fossil fuels by a non-polluting energy supply; no plans to increase the
energy supply to carry the world economy forward. In my opinion, the measures
being initiated to cut back on CO2 emissions are futile; they will inevitably fail to
result in any significant reduction. Example -- recently both China and India have
publicly stated that they have no intention of jeopardizing their economic
development in order to reduce their CO2 emissions! What is certain, however, is
that if the planned restrictions of CO2 emissions were, in fact, to be enforced
there is a very real danger of bringing about a world-wide economic recession.

In my view, we are heading in the wrong direction!

Again, in my view, there is another way, another direction. That way is the
harnessing of the inexhaustible supply of heat below the earth's surface,
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY. I believe the harnessing of geothermal energy would go
a long way towards resolving, or at least mitigating the effects of not only global
warming but most of the world's problems as well. Referring to Atlas's burdens
above, this is how.

The needs of the population explosion (about 50% in the next 50 years) can
be met given cheap and abundant electrical power.

The world's water shortage can be eliminated, given enough de-salination
plants; de-salination plants need electrical power.

The end of our reserves of oil, gas, and eventually coal, would not matter,
given an alternative source of energy, namely geothermal energy.

The introduction of geothermal energy could enable the use of all fossil fuels,
and the CO2 emissions they create, to be phased out over the next three or
four decades (possible exception: kerosene for aircraft, by comparison a very
small proportion of current fossil fuel consumption).

The problems of nuclear energy, the problem of the disposal of nuclear waste and
the danger of sabotage, could be eliminated by replacing nuclear with geothermal.

The world's annual increase in power requirement -- possibly five times by the
year 2100 -- could be met by geothermal energy; the heat below our feet is
unlimited.

The massive population re-location which climate change and sea level rise
will cause could be managed over time given an adequate supply of cheap
electrical power.

If we are to lift a quarter of the world's population out of poverty, provision of
electrical power is a basic essential -- there is no way it could be done
without electricity being available to people wherever they live.

While cheap power in itself will not eliminate the problem of Aids, treatment and
drugs for the millions now effected must depend on medical infrastructure and
education; both in turn requiring electrical power.

Even the world's problem with Islam and its militants would be reduced: the
interference (as Muslims see it) by the West in the affairs of the Islamic
countries stems very largely from the West's need for oil and gas, much of
which lies in Islamic countries. If the West no longer had need of Middle East
oil and gas there is no doubt that the conflict between Islam and the West
would be lessened.

Geothermal energy is pollution-free, environmental friendly, needs no
transportation or storage, is universally available in every region of the globe,
eliminates the political problems associated with fossil fuels between "have" and
"have not" countries, is inexhaustible and unending. But is unlimited geothermal
energy really available? Could it really be mined and used to generate electrical
power? Could it really replace fossil fuels and nuclear?

Last year the Massachusetts Institute of Technology produced a 300 page report
entitled "The Future of Geothermal Energy -- the impact of Enhanced Geothermal
Systems on the United States in the 21st. Century". In the Findings, the report
states, "Using reasonable assumptions regarding how heat would be mined (from
within the USA), we estimate the extractable portion to exceed about 2,000
times the annual consumption of primary energy in the United States in 2005.
Surely an amazing statement! And in principle surely true of regions in the rest of
the world as well.

In Hunter Valley, Australia, a pilot geothermal "hot rock" plant is in operation, see
. The company forecasts that the energy available
from their one site is more than sufficient to supply the electrical power required
by the whole of Australia for the foreseeable future.

If the manpower and global resources expended in the last two decades on wind
farms, solar panels and currently being expended on new wells to mine oil and
gas from less and less productive areas had instead been, and from now on would
be, used to develop geothermal heat as our basic energy source, we would be
well on the way to a permanent and ideal solution to the world's energy source
needs for the 21st. century.

I have been watching the pronouncements being made by the world's political,
commercial and scientific leaders. Hardly a day passes without the subjects of
global warming, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, cutting back on CO2,
carbon trading, and the like, hitting the news. It is amazing, given the fact that
geothermal energy as an energy source is, (in my view) the near-perfect answer
to so many of the world's problems, that it is hardly ever mentioned!

Why not, one asks? I wish I knew!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Note Other relevant papers: 'THE ENERGY PROBLEM -- A POSSIBLE SOLUTION', 'Climate Change and Global Warming', 'A Fact Sheet on
Geothermal Energy' in the previous Atlas's Burden article.

Atlas's Burden

If Atlas, who in Greek mythology carries the weight of the world on his shoulders, was asked, "What are the world's weightiest problems today?" his answer would probably include:

NEEDS OF THE POPULATION EXPLOSION
The world population is set to increase by some 50% or another 3,000 Million people in the next 50 years. All these extra people will need food, water, housing, clothing, health care, education and the other necessities of life, and, of course, jobs.

WATER SHORTAGE
Already acute in some parts of the world - the increase in population will greatly increase this problem. Water shortage can lead to conflict and even war.

POWER SUPPLY
Raising the living standards of the developing world and at the same time the increase in the world's population will consume a vastly increased amount of power. One estimate is that the power required by the end of the century will be at least five times the present level.

THE END OF OIL AND GAS
The world's need for energy is increasing while the reserves of oil and gas are rapidly running out. As evidence, the prices of oil and gas have doubled in recent years. Supplies must eventually be exhausted, what then?

REDUCING CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
CO2 (almost certainly) causes global warming and therefore climate change. As oil and gas become scarcer and more expensive, the world will probably burn more coal, of which there are is a vast reserve. Coal produces much more CO2 than oil or gas and therefore increases global warming and all the dire consequences which must follow.

RISING SEA LEVEL
Due to global warming and melting ice, the sea level is predicted to rise by up to one meter by the end of the century. If so, this will inundate some of the most densely populated cities and areas in the world. Hundreds of millions of people now in those cities and areas will gradually re-locate in other, higher, areas.

CONSEQUENCES OF A CHANGE IN CLIMATE
Climate change will cause major changes in the amount and location of rainfall. Some parts of the
world will become virtually uninhabitable. The existing population in those will over time re-locate in other areas, and add to those migrating due to the rising sea level.

POVERTY
Some 40%, or 2,700 Million, of the world's population are currently having to live on less than US$2 (£1) a day. Some 800 Million go to bed hungry every night. Over 2,000 Million people have no access to electricity. Poverty shortens life, causes disease, increases infant mortality,
leads to mass economic migration, more "illegal immigrants".

AIDS
This pandemic, first recognized in 1981, had by 2006 caused the death of some 25 million people. It is estimated that today some 39 million people are infected, of these. nearly 600,000 are children. Although there are treatments (for those that can afford them) which prolong life, there is no known cure.

WARFARE
According to Wikipedia, there are currently 27 wars taking place around the world.

What are the world's governments and commercial and industrial corporations doing to tackle these global problems? From what I can discover, with one exception, not much!

There has been a marked recent interest in the field of REDUCING CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS. In my opinion, the measures being initiated are futile; they will inevitably fail to result in any significant reduction in the world's increasing CO2 emissions. Moreover, if the measures being planned are actually enforced there is a very real danger of their causing a world-wide economic recession. We are, in my opinion, going in the wrong direction!

In my opinion again, the solution to this CO2 emission problem lies in the harnessing of the inexhaustible supply of heat below the earth's surface, GEOTHERMAL ENERGY, leading eventually to the complete elimination of the use of fossil fuels. Moreover this pollution-free, universally available, unlimited energy source would enable cheap and abundant electrical power to be available world-wide; this would go a long way towards solving, or at least adapting to, most of the world's problems.

If the global resources expended in the last two decades on wind farms, solar panels and on new wells to mine oil and gas from less and less productive areas had instead been used to develop geothermal heat as an energy source, we would be well on the way to a permanent and ideal solution to the world's energy source needs for the foreseeable future.

Note This subject is discussed in other papers: 'Energy' and 'Global Warming'.

A Fact Sheet on Geothermal Energy follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY FACT SHEET

INTRODUCTION

The word geothermal comes from the Greek words "geo" (earth) and "therme" (heat), and means the heat of the earth. Earth's interior heat originated from its fiery consolidation from dust and gas over 4 billion years ago and is continually regenerated from the decay of radioactive elements that occur in all rocks.

EARTH'S HEAT AND VOLCANIC REGIONS

It is almost 6,500 kilometres (4,000 miles) from the surface to the centre of the Earth, and the deeper you go, the hotter it gets.

The outer layer, the crust, is three to 35 miles thick and insulates us from the hot interior. From the surface down through the crust the normal temperature gradient (the increase of temperature with the increase of depth) in the Earth's crust is 17 - 30°C per kilometre of depth (50-87°F per mile). Below the crust is the mantle, made of highly viscous, partially molten rock with temperatures between 650 and 1,250°C (1,200-2,280°F). At Earth's core, which consists of a liquid outer core and a solid inner core, temperatures may reach 4,000-7,000°C (7,200 to 12,600°F). Where magma reaches the surface it can build volcanoes. But most magma stays well below ground, creating huge subterranean regions of hot rock sometimes underlying areas as large as an entire mountain range. Cooling can take from 5,000 to more than 1 million years. These shallow regions of relatively elevated crustal heat have high temperature gradients.

RENEWABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY

Production from individual geothermal fields can be sustained for decades and perhaps centuries. The U.S. Department of Energy classifies geothermal energy as renewable.

GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT

The drill rigs and drilling technology and equipment are virtually the same as that used for drilling for oil or gas. The electrical generating plant, located alongside the geothermal well heads, is standard; steam turbine driven electrical generators connected to the grid. Water consumption is small as the steam is condensed and re-used as injection water.

PROTECTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT

With all sources of energy, developers and consumers must work to protect the environment. The challenges differ with the type of energy resource, and the differences give geothermal energy certain advantages. Geothermal direct use facilities have minimal or no negative impacts on the environment. Geothermal power plants are relatively easy on the environment. They are successfully operated in the middle of crops, in sensitive desert environments and in forested recreation areas.

VISUAL PROTECTION

No power plant or drill rig is as lovely as a natural landscape, so smaller is better. A geothermal plant sits right on top of its fuel source: no additional land is needed such as for mining coal or for transporting oil or gas. When geothermal power plants and drill rigs are located in scenic areas, mitigation measures are implemented to reduce intrusion on the visual landscape. Some geothermal power plants use special air cooling technology which eliminates even the plumes of water vapour from cooling towers and reduces a plant profile to as little as 24 feet in height.

IMPROVING GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGY

Since the 1970's the geothermal industry, with the assistance of government research funding, has overcome many technical drilling and power plant problems. As a result of government-assisted research and industry experience, the cost of generating geothermal power has decreased by 25% over the past two decades. Research is currently underway to further improve exploration, drilling, reservoir, power plant and environmental technologies. Enhancing the recoverability of Earth's heat is an important area of ongoing research.

ENHANCED GEOTHERMAL SYSTEMS

Private and government research projects in the United States, Japan and in Europe are improving the accessibility of geothermal energy by developing new technology to increase the permeability of the rocks.

Permeability can be created in hot rocks by hydraulic fracturing -- injecting large volumes of water into a well at a pressure high enough to break the rocks. The artificial fracture system is mapped by seismic methods as it forms, and a second well is drilled to intersect the fracture system. Cold water can then be pumped down one well and hot water taken from the second well for use in a geothermal plant. This "hot dry rock" technology is being tested in Japan, Germany, France, England and the U.S. In Australia a test plant has been in operation for some time yielding excellent results.

THE FUTURE FOR GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

The outlook for geothermal energy use depends on at least three factors: the demand for energy in general; the inventory of available geothermal resources; and the competitive position of geothermal among other energy sources. The Demand for energy will continue to grow. Economies are expanding, populations are increasing (over 2 billion people still do not have electricity), and energy-intensive technologies are spreading. All these mean greater demand for energy. At the same time, there is growing global recognition of the environmental impacts of energy production and use from fossil fuel and nuclear resources. Public polls repeatedly show that most people prefer a policy of support for renewable energy.

The critical temperature for the generation of geothermal energy to power an electrical generating plant is 200ªC. At every point in the world a well will reach rock at that temperature; on average the depth to reach a temperature of 200ªC is about 5Km. Geothermal heat is more accessible in some areas than others but the inventory of accessible geothermal energy is sizable. The entire world resource base of readily accessible geothermal energy has been calculated in government surveys to be much larger than the resource bases of coal, oil, gas and uranium combined. The geothermal resource base becomes more available as methods and technologies for accessing it are improved through research and experience.

COSTS

Shorter and Longer Term Costs. Production of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) are a relative bargain in the short term. Like many renewable resources, geothermal resources need relatively high initial investments to access the heat. But the geothermal "fuel" cost is predictable and stable. Fossil fuel supplies will increase in cost as reserves are exhausted. Fossil fuel supplies can be interrupted by political disputes abroad.

Renewable geothermal energy is a better long term investment.

Direct and Indirect Costs. The monetary price we pay to our natural gas and electricity suppliers, and at the gas pump, is our direct cost for the energy we use. But the use of energy also has indirect or external costs that are imposed on society.

Examples are the huge costs of global climate change; the health effects from ground level pollution of the air; future effects of pollution of water and land; military expenditures to protect petroleum sources and supply routes; and costs of safely storing radioactive waste for generations. Geothermal energy can already compete with the direct costs of conventional fuels in some locations and is a clean, indigenous, renewable resource without hidden external costs. Public polls reveal that customers are willing to pay a little more for energy from renewable resources such as geothermal energy.

Domestic and Importing Costs. Investment in the use of domestic, indigenous, renewable energy resources like geothermal energy provides jobs, expands the regional and national economies, and avoids the export of money to import fuels.

Energy demand is increasing rapidly worldwide. Some energy and environmental experts predict that the growth of electricity production and direct uses of geothermal energy will be revitalized by international commitments to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to avert global climate change.

Climate Change and Global Warming

In my opinion, we are going in the wrong direction!

by L. Berney

THE PROBLEM

Since the formation of planet Earth, the climate has always changed and is still changing. Changes to the Earth's climate are in the main caused by changes in the temperature. There have been warm periods when there was no permanent ice at either pole. There have been Ice Ages: at one period some 30% of the Earth's surface was under permanent ice. Over time there have been many warm/cold cycles.

The last Ice Age ended some 10,000 years ago; since then, the Earth's temperature has been slowly rising and is still rising and, presumably, it will continue to rise until at some time in the future the temperature will start to fall again. The Earth's temperature rises and falls do not occur evenly; it seems there are intermediate warm/cold swings along the way. There was, a 'mini Ice Age' lasting several decades about 500 years ago.

What factors cause the temperature/climate to change? One of the major factors is the Sun: the heat radiating from the Sun is not constant. At some periods the Sun radiates more heat than at others and the temperature of the Earth follows suit. Another major factor is what is known as 'the greenhouse effect'. The Sun heats the Earth's surface; some of that heat is reflected back off the surface; part of that reflected heat goes back out into space, part is trapped and retained by clouds and by the 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere. The greater the cloud cover and/or the greenhouse effect, the warmer will be the Earth's temperature, and vice versa.
By far the greatest 'greenhouse effect' is caused by clouds: it is common knowledge that at night, when no heat is being radiated by the sun, the air temperature drops further when there is no cloud cover, less when there is.

These and several other factors interact with each other; as a result the Earth's temperature and therefore the climate has always been and always will be unstable.

Records undeniably show that the Earth's temperature is increasing and has been increasing for many thousands of years -- we are in a cyclical period of 'Global Warming'. There are many estimates as to how much the temperature will increase by the end of the century; most predictions indicate an increase of between 3 and 6 degrees centigrade. The accuracy of such projections is open to question. We all know the inaccuracies in projecting the weather even a few days ahead; projecting the Earth's temperature 100 years ahead...?

GREENHOUSE GASES AND CARBON DIOXIDE

The 'greenhouse gases' consist mostly of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide; together, they comprise less than 1.0% of the Earth's atmosphere. The gas which scientists think is responsible for most of 'the greenhouse effect' is carbon dioxide (CO2). Some facts about CO2:

Comparison over the millennia of the Earth's temperature and
the level of CO2 in the atmosphere show a marked
correlation. In warm periods, the CO2 levels were higher; in
cold periods, they were lower.

The greatest repository of CO2 is the sea (71% of our
Planet's surface is sea). If the sea temperature rises, it
releases CO2 to the atmosphere; if it falls, the reverse
happens, the sea absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere.

Forests and vegetation absorb CO2; warmer temperatures
encourage plant growth and therefore the absorption of CO2
is increased.

Burning of fossil fuels -- coal, oil, natural gas -- creates CO2;
cutting down the rain forests (e.g. in Brazil) reduces the
absorption of CO2; forest fires (man-made and natural) create
CO2.

Until the middle of the 19th. century, the start of the
industrial revolution, the volume of CO2 in the atmosphere
was about 0.27%; currently it is up to 0.38%;

RESULTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The two most important results of the increasing temperature, and the consequent changes in climate, are these:

Change in the distribution and amounts of rainfall leading to
changes to rivers and lakes resulting in 'desertization' of
some previously productive areas, increasing agricultural and
livestock productivity in others.

Melting of the ice cover in Greenland and Antarctica and
glaciers elsewhere leading to a gradual rise in the sea level
world-wide.

Of these results, possibly the one which will effect mankind the most is the rising sea level. The rise will be due, not only to the melting of the Polar ice and of the Earth's glaciers, but also to the fact that water increases in volume as it's temperature rises. 'Worst case scenario' predictions show a rise in the sea level of one meter by the year 2100. To instance a few examples of what this would mean: a rise in sea level of one meter would inundate a large part of Bangladesh, Holland, Venice and virtually all the many low-lying cities of the World; it would inundate a number of populated islands; it would inundate large areas of Southern USA.

WHAT DO THE SCIENTISTS SAY?

We know for a fact that the Earth's temperature is rising and we know that the CO2 level is rising too. However, there are conflicting scientific opinions as to whether it is the increase in the CO2 level which is causing the Earth's temperature to rise, or whether it is a cyclical increase in the Earth's temperature which is causing the CO2 level to rise. This scientific conundrum can never be scientifically resolved; it will always remain a matter of conjecture.

Many (but not all) scientists believe that the rate at which the Earth's temperature is rising can not be explained by cyclical or natural causes alone. These scientists think that the 'natural cause' warming rate is being materially added to by an increase in the greenhouse effect. This they attribute to the increasing volume of CO2 in the atmosphere, which in turn they say is the result of the burning of fossil fuels.

Some of these scientists believe that, even if the production of man-made CO2 was halted completely, the amount of man-made CO2 which has already been released into the atmosphere over the last 100 years has irreversibly tipped a delicate balance which will cause the Earth to continue to warm for the next hundred years.

Other scientists think that the observed increase in the CO2 level is not the cause, or only a small part of the cause, of the rise in the Earth's temperature. The argument supporting this view is that the volume of CO2 in the atmosphere is very small, currently 0.38%, up from 0.27% over the last 100 years. Even if all of this increase had been man-made, could this still very small percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere cause any significant increase in the Earth's temperature? They think not. They think the increase in temperature is due one of the Earth's 'normal' cyclical warming periods.

DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT

Popular opinion, pressure groups and environmentalists have forced the World's leaders to think that they ought to "do something": but do what?

It seems that our leaders (or most of them) have decided to assume that is a fact that:

Global Warming is being caused, or mostly caused, by the
increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere due to the
burning of fossil fuels.

if only the production of man-made CO2 were to be reduced,
the Earth's climate would respond by ceasing to get any
warmer.

In fact there is no 'hard' evidence whatsoever to support
either of these assumptions.

Nevertheless, our leaders have decided that, based on these unproven assumptions, the way to solve the problem is to drastically reduce the amount of CO2 released to the atmosphere.
Starting recently, they are introducing laws and initiatives to put this policy into effect. For example: a vast increase in the installation of Wind Generators (hundreds to be mounted in the estuary off the Kent coast and in the North Sea off Scotland!); energy-saving building specifications for new housing and commercial construction; the "Emission Trading Scheme" ETS (financial incentives for industry to reduce emissions -- "carbon trading"); forming international committees (e.g. the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change); holding innumerable international conferences (e.g. Kyoto) to allocate each country's "emission reduction targets".

The world situation in which these 'reduce CO2' policies are to be implemented coincides with pressure from the 'developing world' to use more power and thus to generate more CO2. (The argument runs, "Since the 20% of the population in the 'developed world' produce 80% of the CO2 why should we be expected to hold back on lifting ourselves out of poverty, to hold back our use of energy? -- Let the developed world hold back on theirs first".) This pressure is increasing and is set to go on increasing. For example, China is opening one new coal-burning power station per week! India's power requirements are increasing exponentially. In Africa, the energy consumed per head now is only 10% of that consumed per head in the USA). Another factor is that the world's reserves of oil and natural gas are being used up rapidly. These sources could be, and probably will be, replaced by an increase in the use of coal. Coal produces much more CO2 and other emissions than oil or gas so that for the future the CO2 problem (assuming that it is CO2 which is doing the damage) is likely to be exacerbated.

For these practical reasons, it seems to me improbable that the volume of man-made CO2 being generated can even be held at its present level -- to reduce it from its present level is even more improbable.

Moreover, the steps being taken to reduce CO2 emissions will inevitably be costly. They may, and almost certainly will, have a negative effect on the world's economy.

MY CONCLUSION -- WE ARE HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION!

From the evidence it seems that for the foreseeable future, the Earth IS getting warmer, WILL go on getting warmer, the climate WILL change, the sea level WILL rise. Whatever policies we might adopt aimed at mitigating the effects of Global Warming need to be based on these facts. I suggest the current "solution", focused solely as it is on the reduction of CO2, is bound to fail.

The man-made CO2 being released to the atmosphere may be, or it may not be, increasing the rate of cyclical or natural warming. (That the small percentage increase in the CO2 level due to the burning of fossil fuels is causing the Earth's temperature to rise is not a proven
fact.) But, even if the additional man-made CO2 is causing the temperature to rise, this is not, on its own, the SOLE CAUSE of the current temperature rise. The Earth is in one of its natural cyclical warming periods and it will be getting warmer even if NO man-made CO2 is released. If CO2 emissions were to be reduced, even if they were stopped entirely, the only effect could be, perhaps, to slow slightly the rate of warming; it would not halt it.

The decision of our politicians to try to stop the Earth getting warmer by embarking on programmes to reduce the volume of man-made CO2 brings to mind the experience of King Canute who tried (and failed) to stop the tide from rising.

In fact the current moves and financial incentives to cut down CO2 emission are doing more harm than good. The current policies are diverting our attention from facing up to reality and to mankind's looming problems, namely that the Earth IS warming and WILL GO ON warming for the foreseeable future, regardless of whether or not we reduce man-made CO2.

Fact: we are spending time and money on a policy based on assumptions for which there is no supporting evidence -- on assumptions which I believe are just plain wrong!

In my opinion, we are heading in the wrong direction!

WHAT SHOULD WE DO?

Since there is nothing mankind can do to stop Global Warming, what we need to do is to accept that Global Warming is here to stay and to address its inevitable results. The world's effort and energy currently being directed towards halting Global Warming by reducing carbon emission (a policy doomed to failure in my view) needs to be re-directed toward the following objectives.

RELOCATION - CLIMATE CHANGE As explained above,
there will be serious problems caused by changes in the
distribution and amount of rainfall. There probably will be
floods and droughts, changes in the distribution and
availability of water for consumption and food
production,.increasing 'desertization' making more areas
barren and uninhabitable. These problems will gradually occur
over decades. Mankind is adaptable -- I believe major
population movements and adaptation will have to occur and,
indeed, will occur. Every country should start planning for the
re-location of those of its population which will be effected
and for the provision of infra-structure that climate change
will make necessary.

RELOCATION - COASTAL AREAS here is the even greater
problem presented by the gradual raising of the sea level.
This needs to be addressed, not by a 'King Canute' solution,
but by accepting as a fact that the sea level IS rising and it
WILL GO ON RISING. Every country with coastal areas needs
to start planning accordingly. Plans need to be drawn up to
establish the areas of land which would be inundated if/when
the sea and river levels rise by, say, two meters. All the
housing, agriculture, commercial, roads, railways and other
installations and activities taking place in those areas will
have to be re-located on higher ground. In this connection,
due to Global Warming, large area in the Northern
Hemisphere currently ice-bound would be ice-free and would
be available to be developed and utilized.

The first step would be to prohibit any new construction in
endangered areas; to allow building only in the newly
designated development areas.

ABUNDANT CHEAP POWER To enable this gigantic
re-location programme to be carried out the World will need
to access a source of abundant, cheap and non-polluting
energy. This source is there for the taking. Unlimited
electrical power can be generated by extracting the Earth's
inexhaustible supply of geothermal energy, mining the heat
from the centre of the Earth. (see my previous paper on Energy)